Have you ever done something that felt completely off or even downright silly in the moment, only to realize later that it was exactly what you needed? I recently experienced that exact twist of fate moment, and it lit a spark in me to write this post.
When does irrationality become the right thing? #
Let’s start with a quick question, which do you think is more deadly, a shark or a mosquito? I bet most people would immediately say shark, right? However, the fact is, on average shark account for about 5-6 death annually. Mosquitos, on the other hand is the cause of almost 700.000 deaths every year. Interesting isn’t it? This little example shows that sometimes, what looks like a bizarre or irrational comparison can actually shed light on much deeper truths. However situation in real life can be pretty murky. As Bryan Caplan points out in his book, The Myth of Rational Voter, this behavior comes down to two things:
- People tends to have preference over beliefs.
- The cost of individual to hold irrational beliefs is low.
Rational irrationality through the lens of game theory #
I often the think the easiest way to explain this is with a little help from game theory. Picture the classic prisoner’s dilemma, two gang members are stuck in solitary cells, each serving a one year sentence with no way to talk to each other. Then the cops propose a Faustian bargain, if one testifies against the other, they’ll go free while their partner gets three years in prison. If both spill the beans, they each get two years.
Now, the best outcome for both would be to stay silent, getting off lightly together. But here’s where it gets messy. In real life, we never have perfect information about what someone else might do, and that gap is quickly filled with our gut reactions and emotions. This is a neat demonstration of how even “irrational” choices can be strategically rational when you factor in human unpredictability. Information is our weapon to reduce the probability making those horrendeous error, but we also have to watch out for confirmation bias, which can cloud our judgment.